Historical Parallels
Compare current market conditions to historical patterns
VIX
18.5
Yield Curve (10Y-2Y)
0.15%
Unemployment
4.1%
S&P 500 YTD
+2.5%
Historical Patterns
2008 Financial Crisis
Sep 2008 - Mar 2009
Credit crisis triggered by subprime mortgage collapse. VIX spiked to 80, yield curve inverted 6 months prior.
2020 COVID Crash
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
Fastest bear market in history followed by fastest recovery. Unprecedented fiscal and monetary response.
1970s Stagflation
1973 - 1982
Extended period of high inflation and slow growth. Oil shocks, wage-price spiral, and Fed policy errors.
2000 Dot-Com Bust
Mar 2000 - Oct 2002
Tech bubble burst after extreme valuations. NASDAQ fell 78% from peak. Value stocks outperformed.
Credit crisis triggered by subprime mortgage collapse. VIX spiked to 80, yield curve inverted 6 months prior.
- 2008 Financial Crisis
VIX Peak
45
Yield Curve
-0.5%
Unemployment
6.5%
Max Drawdown
-35%
What Happened Next
S&P 500 (6 months)
-25%
S&P 500 (12 months)
+15%
Recession Duration
18 months
Key Lessons
- •Credit spreads widened significantly before equity selloff
- •Fed cut rates aggressively but market continued falling
- •Recovery began before economic data improved
